Weekend in retrospect...

Apologies for my usual weekend eclipse during football season. Sometimes TGS gets the better of my senses, as it does on Saturdays when I basically stay home, order the college FB TV package, and watch every game under the sun (or moon, as it might be). The kinds words on the Vandy prediction were nice, and thank goodness the Dores came through for us, because otherwise it was a dismal weekend. Saturday was downright painful, waching game after game slip through our fingertips.

I vow not to support any more rinky-dink college sides, no matter what the pointspread, unless they play one another. Watching hopelessly as outmanned Army battled hard but came up short at BC. Nevada's utterly depressing showing vs. Washington State. Rice, lucky that UCLA called off the dogs after 30 minutes, or the Bruins (299 yards in the 1st Q, 49 points in the 1st H) could have gained 1000 yards and matched the 100 points Bill Yeoman's veer put up against Tulsa in 1968. At least Navy scratched and clawed its way back to avoid pointspread defeat vs. Stanford. Sometimes I simply outsmart myself and get a bit too cute with some of these picks. Easy to get romanced at times by a big underdog. We'll just regroup on those teams and wait for better spots to take a chance with them down the road.

This week, we have selected some different teams to pull us out of the funk. Temple is an abomination, and revved-up Toledo, scoring about 60 ppg, should destroy the Owls, so we recommend the Rockets, no matter the big number, in front of 5000 or so souls at the Linc. Notre Dame, impressive as it has been, will be hard-pressed to beat Michigan State, much less cover a 7-point spread. We take the capable Spartans. No way should Wake Forest be laying 15 points vs. anybody. The Deacs, though usually a scrappy underdog, might be the worst favorite in the country (dropped their last 7 spread decisions as chalk), and they've covered only 3 of 15 as a favorite under Jim Grobe. We'll take Skip Holtz' improved East Carolina for this one at Winston-Salem, a game the Pirates have a legitimate shot to win, never mind that bonus they're getting from the oddsmaker. Finally, an overrated Purdue, which loses almost every close game it plays, and never carries numbers vs. decent opposition on the road, will have a lot to do just to win at Arizona Saturday night, never mind covering a 9 1/2-10 point spread. In the NFL, we have the Eagles tonight, then next week it's "under" the 34-point "total" with Detroit and Chicago (he Bears will be involved in more 9-7 type games this season), and the Tuna to beat Gibbs next Monday, continuing Dallas' curious domination of the Skins in recent years.

As for the NFL, here are some Week One observations from the left coast...

1) Denver. Simply no excuse for that shoddy effort at Miami, though the score is a tad misleading (if Broncos score from the 2 on the last play, instead of giving up a 98-yard fumble return, the score would have at least been a more respectable 27-17). Denver really seemed to wilt in the second-half humidity, and that would not have been the result were the game played at 5400 feet. No matter, I have seen enough of the Broncos giving up and folding their tents lately under Shanahan, recalling the playoff blowouts at Indy the past two seasons, the no-show at Kansas City last December, conspiring to lose games they should never drop like that Sunday nighter vs. the Raiders last November, etc. One gets the feeling that the Miami loss could mark the beginning of the end for the little man in Denver. He is running out of time on the Jake Plummer experiment, as the Snake's penchant for costly mistakes hardly inspires the sort of confidence a team needs from its QB. Soon I might get on the Bradlee Van Pelt bandwagon at QB, he is a true gamer and leader, and made huge strides in the preseason. Not that a solid August translates into regular-season production, but on the days when Plummer is bad, how could Van Pelt not be a better option?

Curiously, Shanahan seems to have Pat Bowlen in his pocket. Up to now, Bowlen reportedly wouldn't dream of having another coach for the team. And, in truth, Shanahan has kept Denver nicely afloat in the salary cap age, competing for playoff berths every season while the majority of other teams have problems sustaining any success beyond one season. That consistency is what makes the Eagles and Pats so unique. Even the Steelers have had some down years under Cowher, but Dan Rooney was never tempted to hit the eject button, and I think Bowlen idolizes the Rooneys, in his own sort of way. (Somehow I don't think Rooney's wife is a flashy platinum blonde with several pit stops at the plastic surgeon, a la Mrs. Bowlen).

For the moment, I'll give Denver a mulligan on that first game, with this proviso... the Broncs had better come back and beat the Bolts this week at Invesco. Otherwise, this season could start to slip away.

2-Browns. This could be a long season for Romeo Crennel, and I was not terribly surprised by the Cincy result. That defense in New England the past few seasons was not Crennel's, it was Belichick's, much like the Florida offense of a few years ago was not Buddy Teevens', it Spurrier's (as Stanford painfully found out). The Brownies have some real limitations offensively with the statue-like Trent Dilfer anchored in the pocket, and the defense, most weeks, at least, will not be good enough to compensate.

As for the Bengals, I would keep an eye on those guys. The offense is really beginning to hum as Carson Palmer continues to take his game up another notch or two. Plenty of dangerous, speedy receiving options, and Rudi Johnson is one of the most underrated backs in the NFL. And, unlike Crennel, I really believe Marvin Lewis is a defensive mastermind, and if the Bengals can shore up that rush defense just a bit, they are a legit wild card contender.

3-Ravens. I stand by my proclamation that Brian Billick is perhaps the most overrated coach in the game. His supposed offensive genius reputation was gained from that one year in Minnesota when opponents simply had no defense for the rainbow balls Randall was throwing Randy Moss' way. The Baltimore Super Bowl defense was Marvin Lewis' creation, not Billick's, and in subsequent years, Billick's shortcomings have been exposed. Even a modest offense could have helped the Ravens get back to another Super Bowl, or at least mount a serious challenge to the emerging Patriot dynasty. Instead, the Baltimore attack has looked like an old jalopy in age of Ferraris, with first Grbac, then the overrated Kyle Boller (who has flourished in exactly one year, college and pro, and that was his sr. year at Cal when Jeff Tedford, a real guru, was his coach). Billick didn't realize that the 2000 version of Trent Dilfer was good enough to get the team to the top, and never should have jettisoned Trent in favor of Grbac immediately thereafter, as Dilfer was something of a clubhouse leader, and had the respect of his teammates.

4-49ers. What a difference a coach makes. Though one game does not make a season, or career, I have the sneaky suspicion that Mike Nolan knows what he's doing, and while the press has spent the offseason patting the Browns ont he back for hiring Crennel, it was San Francisco that might have really hit the jackpot with Nolan. The Niner talent isn't a lot better than it was a year ago, but the team seems more organizied, disciplined, and spirited than it was during the desultory Dennis Erickson era. Keep in mind that injuries completely decimated the 49ers last year, too. Nolan correctly reasoned that Alex Smith wasn't ready for a starting job in the NFL quite yet and wisely named the serviceable Tim Rattay as his starter, much like Marvin Lewis did with Kitna and Carson Palmer two years ago. Those benefits will be reaped down the road. For now, the 49ers have a better chance to compete with Rattay, and by simply competing better, the 49ers have a better chance to win back their lost fans in the Bay Area and establish the Nolan "program" for future success. Too soon for playoff talk, maybe, but that was a different 49er team yesterday than the one I saw all of last season, that's for sure, the hints of which were evident in a promising preseason. And beating a "Mad Mike Martz" team is always something of a pleasure.
Other random thoughts. No way the Chargers are going to catch every break this season like they did in 2004. I say Marty's team falls below .500, with that tougher schedule, this season. Larry Johnson's presence gives Kansas City two featured RBs. If the new defenders help out the Chief defense, and Trent Green stays healthy, Vermeil will have one more serious run at the ring. Buffalo's defense is the fiercest in the league, and if J.P. Losman produces just adequately, the Bills will make a playoff run. The Redksins are so boring that I would rather watch C-Span than the team. Gibbs' teams cannot play 1980s-style football and win big in the 00s. The Giants are a sleeper, because Eli is a natural and will end up making twice as many plays as the mechanical "athletes" like Boller, etc. Eli simply knows how to play football. The Saints were heroic on Sunday, but let's remember that New Orleans has fared extremely well in just that sort of road underdog role for years under Haslett. Maybe the fact the Saints are playing all of their games on the road this season will actually turn out to be a plus. The Packers are basically finished as a contender, and Mike Sherman might be fortunate to last the season. Favre is past his sell-by date, and if Javon Walker is really out for the season, this offense will really struggle. Are the Lions really the best in the NFC North, or just the best of the worst?

Finally, a bad year to be named "Mike" for NFL coaches. At least two between Holmgren, Sherman, Tice, and Shanahan could bite the dust after this season. More than likely it will be three, and perhaps all four.

Also, the value of good coaching. It is just a couple of weeks into the season, but is this just coincidence, or what? The Dolphins lose last year and fire Dave Wannstedt. LSU wins the last few years with Nick Saban, who goes to the Dolphins, who win their first game impressively under Saban. Wannstedt goes to Pitt, which was a BCS team last year, and the Panthers immediately look terrible, lose their first two games, one of those at Ohio University (not Ohio State). This week, Wannstedt and Pitt travel to Nebraska with Bill Callahan in the battle of castoff NFL coaches. Both are in the process of destroying the college programs they now shepherd. In Callahan's case, there's probably a reason the West Coast offense can't play in Lincoln. With those winds howling across the Plains, an aerial circus is likely to be blown all around the stadium. No wonder Dr. Tom and Frank Solich ran the ball on every play. You can't throw the ball all over the yard in that wind-swept stadium. The Huskers' Callahan version of the West Coast is the worst I've ever seen.

Tonight, I like Paul's 26-14 Eagles prediction. We need Philadelphia badly this evening to salvage an otherwise desultory weekend, so I would be satisfied with 20-17, even 19-17, just so it gets over that 1 1/2-point spread.

College hoops can't come soon enough...