Pondering the Phils' Phate

Brucie:

I have a hard time believing that they won't crack 84 wins, given the mediocrity of the division and their recent track record. I think that the offense will be good enough to carry them into September, and they might compete for a division title in a weak race to 88-90 wins. I say this fully cognizent of the weakness of their pitching staff, but also aware of the holes that other teams have. I think you are starting with a minimum 78 win team and having to bet on 4 wins - I'll take that bet.

My pick for surprise team in the NL is the Milwaukee Brewers. Solid pitching staff, especially if Ben Sheets is healthy. Their rotation of Sheets, Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, the underrated but steady Tomo Ohka, and the possible breakthrough performer Dave Bush is quite solid. They have a few guys who are young and who have to step up (Fielder, Weeks, JJ Hardy), but I think they are ready, and will challenge for the division title. 82 is a low number - that's the one I would jump on, moreso than the Phils.