Baseball on deck...

Paulie-

Wondering if you have any early thoughts on the Phillies' prospects this season. This weekend, I am producing my annual baseball "futures" article for TGS where I call "over/under" on the posted season total of wins for selected teams. In the Phils' case, the number is 82 1/2; you can access all of the over-unders for MLB teams in the above Bodog link, and scroll down to the bottom portion of that page.

My knee-jerk reaction is to go "over" on the Phils. They won 88 last year, and I think they might be a factor in the NL East again. When speaking to Mark the other night, however, he cautioned me, as he has legitimate issues with the staff, namely a bullpen sans Wagner (and counting on an aging Tom Gordon) and the depth of the starting rotation, especially with Wolfie a big ? (maybe a mid-season return) and relying on the likes of Gavin Floyd and Ryan Franklin to hold down a couple of starting spots. Those are valid concerns, to be sure.

As Mark commented, 82 1/2 is a tough number. I do like the energy the Rollins/Utley combo can provide in the infield, and the sky is the limit for Ryan Howard, who could end up with 40 homers this season (though I suppose in a worst-case scenario, if he can't learn to hit lefties a bit better, this could become a platoon for Charlie Manuel). I think David Bell's injury is a non-factor (except to Bell), as they can probably get as much from Abraham Nunez or Tomas Perez at 3B. Rowand is an excellent addition in CF, he can cover a lot of ground, and it will make for a better defensive outfield. Burrell-Rowand-Abreu could be a darned good outfield, especially as I suspect Burrell is beyond the wildly-erratic production of the past couple of years. Lieberthal, however, is on the downside, though I think Pat Gillick is sharp enough to put some band-aids on any problem areas and can come up with short-term fixes where needed that can keep the Phils' heads above water and perhaps in the race. Though if Mark is correct, that might mean Gillick could be looking at pitching reinforcements already.

I value your opinion on the Phils and any other teams you wish to comment upon. Dan is also preparing a comprehensive rundown, and I absorb all input. If Mark is reading this, feel free to jump in with any other predictions beyond our discussion Tuesday night. Remember to reference that link above for all of the over/unders. I'll probably write the story Saturday night, so if you have can have anything to me before then, that would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!