Monday, January 23, 2006

On Conference Championship Games

Bruce, you raise an interesting point on Conference Championship games. They once were the province of some of the most memorable games ever played, yet the past several years they have been getting less so. I'm not sure I understand why.

I remember having a discussion of this kind back in medical school, where it was framed as "Why are so many Super Bowls such lopsided games while so many playoff games are so memorable?" One guy had what I thought was probably the correct answer: there is only one SB each year, but there are many playoff games. We remember all the Super Bowls, but forget about the playoff clunkers. In our memories, the great playoff games live on, and so we think that the playoffs produce better games than does the Super Bowl. However, on a percentage basis, this is probably not the case.

I wonder if we can subject that hypothesis to statistical scrutiny. It would be interesting to see what percentage of post-season, non-SB games are decided by <7, 7-13, and 14 or more, and compare that to the Super Bowl outcomes. Bruce, are you up for this?

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