Monday, October 03, 2005

Quick notes on a scorecard...

Working deadline later today on the soccer publication, after a usual TGS grind on Sunday. Will have more time to comment later this week, but for now, a few quick notes...

SC is vulnerable, and if I had to beat my life I would say the Trojans won't get out of South Bend with a win in two weeks. ASU had SC on the ropes, but couldn't put the Trojans away because the defense simply wasn't strong enough, and QB Sam Keller had about as much mobility as Frankenstein in the pocket. Teams can pass the Trojans silly, and had Keller been able to escape the pocket just a few times, ASU would have sustained some drives and scored 40 or more. A QB like Brady Quinn, who has some mobility, would have been able to escape freely those times and have 15-20 yards of clear pasture in front of him, and can burn a Pete Carroll defense, which loves to blitz. I suspect Charlie Weis, who is looking more brilliant every week, will be able to execute the "Tedford game plan" against Troy, and then some, keeping the chains moving by picking apart SC on short stuff, neutralizing Carroll's blitzing tendencies, mixing in the intermediate and occasional long stuff to stretch the 2ndary, while Darius Walker keeps the Trojans off balance with well-designed runs. My only concern is with the ND defense, but I believe it is stronger than ASU's or Oregon's, and will have the benefit of Weis' sage observations (even though he spends most of his time with the offense).

I like Weis enough to become a Notre Dame fan aagin.

This SC teams tends to be sloppy, piling up ridiculous penalties (8 in the 1st Q alone at Tempe), has already been burned by a couple of kick returns, and is vulnerable. The Irish have a week off before facing SC as well, there will be lots of talk of how ND broke Oklahoma's win streak in the 50s, so the scenario is set for another epic Notre Dame performance. Not only will the Irish win, but I suspect Cal has a good shot at SC as well in November. Tedford has proven he can match wits with Carroll, the Bear defense is fierce, and Cal figures to get better as the season progresses as the young talent continues to mature. The Bears also get SC in Berkeley. Though Cal has a tricky date vs. UCLA this week, and will have to scrap to survive, the possibility of being unbeaten when SC comes to visit is very real.

The Bruins, by the way, will have a harder time staying close to SC, because the defense is still susceptible to quality ground games, and I just don't think the UCLA stop unit can withstand the onslaught for 60 minutes. The Bruins might have a puncher's chance vs. SC, but the narrow escape vs. a so-so Washington team is a red flag, as UCLA had trouble controlling the line of scrimmage (as has been the case the past 2 years vs. stronger opposition), and only because the Huskies have yet to learn to win under Ty did the Bruins escape with a last-minute win. Still some work to do in Westwood.

Much impressed with the Eagles yesterday, rallying from 24-6 in that hostile environment. Just as disappointed with Kansas City, which couldn't stop the momentum once it swung Philadelphia's way. McNabb is MVP, and Eagles remain team to beat in NFC, but I still suspect a bit tougher sledding in the NFC East. Not necessarily the Skins, who are improved, though not as much as people think. A couple of inches on a desperation pass, and a missed-last second FG by the Seahawks, and Gibbs is 1-2 (and fortunate to beat the Bears for that one win). My comrades at TGS are loving Gibbs now and outvoted me on Denver-Wash. this week, but the Skins will come home from Denver with their first loss. The Eagles should handle Dallas this week, but the real team to watch will be the Giants, as Eli is quickly turning into a force. He simply has the sort of feel for a game that most QBs don't, I have seen that since he made an otherwise average Ole Miss team into a good one in his college days. He is starting to do the same with the Giants. All of the talk is about the Redskins right now, but don't be fooled, the Giants are more dangerous.

Elsewhere, do not discount the Falcons, though if Vick's knee injury is more serious than first believed, their chances are severely compromised. That defense is real, as the Eagles found out, and Atlanta can run the ball, but the extra dimension of a healthy Vick is needed to make a serious push in the postseason. No other NFC team is really bowling me over. Tampa Bay is improved, but will flatten out soon. Mike Martz could get fired after this season, if not during the season, in St. Louis. Ditto for Tice in Minnesota, and Sherman in Green Bay. I still think the Lions could make something happen, but I don't like Harrington much, and Steve Mariucci might not be able to survive another sub-.500 season. Carolina is lurking out there, but the Panthers have yet to hit stride. There's plenty of time to find their groove, and I will watch with interest against the Pack tonight (if I am done with the soccer pub, that is).

Playoff predictions. Both AL mini-playoffs go the distance, with Halos and White Sox prevailing in five. Cards sweep Pads, and Astros get Braves in four. I'll worry about ALCS and NLCS next week. Feel bad for the Phils not getting in there, I still say they had the best chance in NL to beat the Cards. But do not discount the gutty Astros. Not sure I have ever seen a team maximize what little it really has, and in the short series format of the postseason, that staff can be lethal.

Oh yes, and the Dodgers lost 91 games. Today is also wedding anniversary number 24. I'm sure we will have a celebratory dinner tonight, but I will save a toast for the bumbling Blue Crew, whose misadventures over the past few months truly made it one of my best summers in years...

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home