Thursday, December 01, 2005

Fraud-o-nomics

I don't know if you have followed the tale of Steve Levitt, author of "Freakonomics". One of his more widely cited "findings" is that Roe v Wade has led to a decline in the crime rate, presumably by killing the "unwanted" before they could grow up to become hoodlums. Except that his analysis is suspect, as then also are his conclusions. Steve Sailer is on the case (link in title above). This was also covered in the Wall Street Journal recently.

You might also remember the kerfuffle with Bill Bennett, who answered a hypothetical, namely, if Levitt's findings were true, would that change the moral calculus on abortion. He answered that killing groups of people who are statistically overrepresented in some demographic group would reduce the number in that group, and therefore decrease whatever activity defines that demographic. Woe unto him, he chose to illustrate his point with black men and crime, so that his broader point was lost. He was very careful to have framed his comments so that this reaction should not have happened (calling the idea "morally reprehensible"), but conservatives get less slack than lefties, and so the Bennett-bashing was on.

And now it turns out that the very premise that Bennett's caller began with, namely that abortion has been shown to reduce crime, was wrong. So the morons who went after Bennett for no good reason can't even try to go back to the premise and argue that, as it has been disproved. Not that the myth will die easily - as I get older, I realize that the truth doesn't always register with the general public as I hope that it would, and that the power of a beloved myth is often greater than the power of truth.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home